By Ed Ponsi, a globally recognized lecturer and teacher and the former chief trading instructor for Forex Capital Markets*
Posted: August 8, 2008

You are an American. You work hard, and you save your money. Your investment portfolio is in good shape, and your house is still worth more than you paid for it. Your net worth is greater than it has ever been. Yet, somehow, you don't feel as wealthy as you imagined you would at this stage. The money you have doesn't seem to go as far as it should. It's almost as if someone or something is draining your wealth while you sleep at night.

Why aren't we as wealthy as we ought to be? Is it China's fault? Is it the price of oil? What if I told you that the reason why your wealth is eroding is due to the weakness of your currency?

It is crucial that every citizen of the U.S. understand the true nature of our current predicament. The U.S. dollar has been losing value steadily for years, and with the series of recent rate cuts, the greenback has taken a beating. Lower interest rates drive capital away from the U.S. and toward countries that offer higher-yielding investments, resulting in a weaker currency.

In the subsequent chart, we see the decline of the dollar (as exhibited by the Dollar Index [USDX]) for the decade up through 2007 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: U. S. Dollar Index (USDX) reaches a new 15-year low (Source: FX Street.com)

So, why should the average American care about the weakness of the U.S. dollar? Well, if you've spent your entire life accumulating U.S. dollars, and you own a house valued in U.S. dollars, and you own an investment portfolio valued in U.S. dollars, then you are personally affected by this.

Recent price rises in this country have begun to make apparent to the average American why that weakness is important, but the effect of a weak dollar has been apparent for awhile for anyone who travels overseas. If you’ve traveled to the U.K. in the last year or so, you may have found yourself paying the equivalent of $10 for a Happy Meal. Given the circumstances, last year, fewer and fewer Americans were choosing to travel outside of the U.S.

The rise in the cost of living here in the U.S., you may say, makes travel overseas even more out of reach for the average American. So, again, why should we care?

Well, the consequences of a weak currency go far beyond international travel. While many in the U.S. face the possibility of losing their homes over the next few years because of the subprime mess, some of my friends in the U.K are considering purchases of property in the U.S. From their perspective, U.S. property is getting cheaper by the day because of the weak dollar. Imagine that -- people from Europe and Great Britain can afford to buy U.S. homes, but many Americans can't. Welcome to the world of the weak dollar.

Now, let's take it one step further; not just property, but all U.S. assets are now less expensive to folks from outside the U.S. If the greenback continues to slide, some U.S. companies may become easy takeover targets for those who have a strong currency. Because it will cost less for European and U.K. companies to employ Americans, we may now become "cheap labor" for companies based in these countries. Who knows: At the rate things are going, someday, people in other countries will complain about the outsourcing of their jobs to Americans. Sure, we want jobs, but do we really want to become a third-rate country in the process?

How much has the price of oil really gone up? Sounds like a silly question, doesn't it? But, that's only because we are looking at one side of a two-sided equation. We know that the price of oil has risen dramatically, but consider this -- the real price of oil has not increased as dramatically in Canada as it has in the U.S. How can this be? The price of oil has more than doubled since early 2004 (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Crude oil has more than doubled in price since early 2004 (Source: Saxo Bank)

A more precise way to put it would be that the price of oil as measured in U.S. dollars has doubled during that period of time. In early 2004, one U.S. dollar was worth 1.40 Canadian dollars (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: U.S. Dollar was worth 1.40 Canadian Dollars in early 2004 (Source: Saxo Bank)

Let's do the math: If one barrel of oil was worth $37 USD in early 2004, and one U.S. dollar was worth 1.40 Canadian dollars at that time, then one barrel of oil was worth approximately 51.8 Canadian dollars in early 2004 (37 x 1.4 = 51.8).

As of September 2007, a barrel of oil cost approximately $78 USD, and one U.S. dollar was worth 1.05 Canadian dollars. So, we could say that one barrel of oil, at that time, was worth approximately 81.9 Canadian dollars (78 x 1.05 = 81.9).

Wait a minute! The price of oil skyrocketed since early 2004, from $37 to $78, an increase of more than 100 percent for those who live in the United States. But, when measured in Canadian dollars, the price of oil rose from 51.8 to 81.9 -- a gain of less than 60 percent? Sort of makes you wish you lived in Canada, eh? The same is true for many countries whose currency has strengthened versus the dollar.

So, who benefits from the weak dollar? Well, U.S. corporations that do a substantial amount of business overseas are the primary beneficiaries because our soft currency makes their products cheaper to overseas buyers. Export-driven U.S. companies are raking in the profits while imports are becoming more expensive. They make more, and we pay more.

Then, the U.S. trade deficit must be improving, right? Not really. Sure, exports are at an all-time high, but so are imports. The U.S. Trade Deficit for August 2007 was projected to be $59 billion -- not an all time high, but not far from it, either.

So, get ready, America. Get ready to pay more and receive less. And, if the dollar continues to fall, the situation will only get worse. That is, unless we decide to put a stop to this madness.

Here is the bottom line -- even if we have the same amount of money as before, we are getting poorer everyday. This is not a political issue; it is a quality of life issue. A weak dollar will affect the quality of life for us and for our children for years to come.

It's time for people in the U.S. to wake up and scream about it. Let's catch that thief in the night before he steals even more of what we've worked so hard to build.

*Reprinted (and modified) with permission from Online Trading Academy www.onlinetradingacademy.com.